Metaculus - "Metaculus is a community dedicated to generating accurate predictions about future real-world events by aggregating the collective wisdom, insight, and intelligence of its participants."
Backcasting - Wikipedia #article - "Backcasting is a planning method that starts with defining a desirable future and then works backwards to identify policies and programs that will connect that specified future to the present. The fundamentals of the method were outlined by John B. Robinson from the University of Waterloo in 1990. The fundamental question of backcasting asks: "if we want to attain a certain goal, what actions must be taken to get there?""
Excel: Scenario Planning and Analysis #course - "A multitude of factors can affect the trajectory of your business. Learning how to document, summarize, and present projected business scenarios can help provide a basis for insightful business analysis, and help you evaluate the impact of various choices on your organization. In this course, explore techniques for analyzing a series of business scenarios using the flexible and powerful capabilities built into Excel. The course starts with a chapter on the art and craft of scenario planning before turning to the technical capabilities of Excel. Tools covered include row grouping to show and hide detail, PivotTables, and functions for using the normal distribution."
The Fourth Way: Design Thinking Meets Futures Thinking #article - "They say “hindsight is 20/20”. If only you knew then what you know now, you would have sold that stock, ended that relationship, or taken that job offer in a snap. Of course the tricky part is being able to make those decisions in the present, but how do you do that without knowing what’s lurking around the corner? I want to argue that by making Futures Thinking a standard part of your thought process — both in your business and personal lives — you’ll be able to make better decisions in the face of uncertainty."
Futures Thinking: A Mind-set, not a Method - Touchpoint - Medium #article - "Design practices are becoming increasingly future-focussed, reflecting the complexities of the design challenges that we face. Futures thinking can offer us tools and methods to help with this, but more than that, it might offer us a new way of seeing the world that we design for."
Futures Thinking: The Basics #article - "For nearly the past fifteen years, I’ve been working as a futurist. My job has been to provide people with insights into emerging trends and issues, to allow them to do their jobs better. I’ve done this work for big companies and government agencies (usually under the Very Professional sounding title of strategic foresight), and for TV writers and game companies. It’s quite an enjoyable job, as it allows me to indulge my easily-distracted curiosity about the world."
Futures Thinking | Coursera #course - "Ready Yourself for a Changing World. Learn the skills and mindsets of the world’s top futurists, so you can forecast what’s coming, imagine new possibilities, and seize control of your own future"
Leading Like a Futurist #course - "Futures-centered thinking may be the most important leadership skill you've never been taught. It’s a discipline and set of practices that everyone can learn. This course is about helping you see, shape, and share the future by improving your strategic thinking and foresight skills, your comfort with ambiguity, and your ability to communicate opportunities in a way that gets others excited, too. Lisa Kay Solomon—an expert on leadership, futures, and design thinking—explains how to imagine new futures, avoid being blindsided, and take steps to bring preferred futures to life. She also explains how to move beyond traditional ways of innovating and assessing risk by learning how to scan and capitalize on external trends and forces that are accelerating the spread of change and disruption."
Pre-mortem - Wikipedia #article - "A pre-mortem, or premortem, is a managerial strategy in which a project team imagines that a project or organization has failed, and then works backward to determine what potentially could lead to the failure of the project or organization."
Scenario planning - Wikipedia #article - "Scenario planning, also called scenario thinking or scenario analysis, is a strategic planning method that some organizations use to make flexible long-term plans. It is in large part an adaptation and generalization of classic methods used by military intelligence."
TOOLS: BACKCASTING FROM SCENARIOS — innovate change #article - "Imagining a desired future can inspire strategy and action, but the path to success is not always obvious. At innovate change, we use future focused scenarios to provide a picture of the future, then we ‘backcast’ to work out how to get there. Developing policy, services or programmes from this perspective helps us to imagine the impact of our plans on real people."